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So, United plays it safe and settles for Onalfo after months of deliberations. Makes one wonder what took them so long to decide. Don’t get me wrong, Onalfo is a good solid coach and a very knowledgeable and respectable person, but I can’t say he’s an inspiring pick to lead the team back its former greatness. More like going to a new restaurant and gazing longingly at all the tempting items only to settle on the same old reliable steak medium rare that won’t disappoint, but leaves you kicking yourself later for not taking a chance on something new.

Or maybe there simply were no fresh new faces to be had once the Akron wonderboy apparently decided to take a pass, which implies the DC job may not be as in demand as we’d all like to think. Frankly, that no one besides the usual suspects appeared to be even interested in the job speaks volumes about the organization in general in my opinion. But, perhaps that’s a stretch, and it’s a rant for another day anyway.

Still, the point is clear that former DC United player and assistant coach is very likely the safe, solid choice to lead the team out of its two year hiatus from the playoffs at least. With a pretty good base of solid, if unspectacular players already, and now a solid, if unspectacular coach, as well as an agonizingly simplified schedule ahead, DC should surely be able to at least get back into the playoff picture consistently. But, will Onalfo be the guy that guides this team back to filling the trophy case fairly regularly? Not based on evidence to date.

However on the plus side, Onalfo is not likely to hamper the team as much as Soehn did, and even Temperamental Tommy nearly pulled off a playoff run despite shooting himself in the foot regularly, if only the team could have hung on for four more minutes against KC (ironically) in the last match of the season. Onalfo certainly hasn’t done anything obvious to undermine his own teams anyway, so that’s an improvement over the past few years at least.

As for the book on Onalfo, let’s take a bit closer look at what United is likely to be in for. He’s only 40 and is definitely an up and coming American coach with loads of experience as a player and in a variety of management positions for a variety of organizations both at the professional level and with the US National teams. He has also been associated with some of the brightest minds in American soccer and has rock solid MLS credentials both as a player and assistant coach including right here in DC.

That’s the good news. The bad news is that he was decidedly underwhelming in his last job and only actual head coaching stint. He was fired from KC after a couple of seasons of so-so results. He compiled a 27-29-22 record overall which is something we DC fans can identify with as that about mirrors the United experience the past few years. However, KC did make the playoffs his first two years, while the Black and Red has been edged out the past two years.

But coaching in KC is a whole different animal than coaching some other teams, so let’s break down his accomplishments a bit further than just the bottom line results. Especially as those results tended to decline as he went along, from a conference final appearance in ’07, to a first round exit in ’08, to out of the playoff picture and fired after 18 games in ’09.

So, to start with he was reportedly brought in to DC because he is an offensive minded coach, yet his KC teams hardly lit up the league. Indeed, if you look at his teams after 2007, they hardly scream the kind of kid in a candy store offensive juggernauts like the old Ron Newman KC teams.

In 2007, Onalfo’s first year in KC, the team did put up 45 goals (fifth in MLS mainly due to a rejuvenated Eddie Johnson with 15 goals, the only player in top 10 in any offensive category). But then they steadily denigrated to 37 goals in ’08 (12th in league, nobody in top 10), and 20 goals in 18 games (also 12th) before he was fired last summer. It should be noted Vermes didn’t do any better afterwards and the team finished tied for 13th in goal scoring, although Josh Wolff did crack the top 10 with 11 goals and Lopez the top 10 with 8 assists.

Yet, there’s probably more to that stat than coaching. There’s also the fact that KC has consistently had some of the worst offensive talent in the league. Onalfo did get the most out of EJ, as well as got quite bit out of the aging Claudio Lopez. But, while Arnaud and Wolff are decent players, neither strike fear in defenses around the league, and quite simply no one else on any of his teams was even close to being a real offensive threat at all.

And then there’s the spectacular busts that KC brought in. Carlos Marinelli springs immediately to mind, but so do some other sketchy acquisitions like Trujillo, Colombano, Hirsig, and most recently, Zoltan. However, how much is Onalfo to blame for bringing in those guys? Given KC’s notoriously tight purse strings and Vermes’ obvious ego, surely Onalfo’s hands were tied and/or he was simply handed players and told to make the best of it. Which doesn’t bode well, as almost certainly the same thing will happen in DC given our current brainstaff.

Plus, very little of their offensive draft picks have panned out much either, only Espinosa, Morsinck, and maybe Graham Zusi have shown any real spark and not much at that, although that area of the draft is always a crap shoot. Still, Onalfo likely bears the brunt of those failed offensive picks.

He’s done a lot better picking and developing defensive talent however. Harrington, Leathers, Beasler, Marquess, and McKenzie all look like decent to very good players. Then again Chance Myers looks like a spectacular waste of the number one pick, although he is fast and athletic at least.

In fact, looking at KC’s defensive numbers during his tenure seems to indicate he has a good grasp of that side of the ball, something that DC could clearly use, by the way. So, while the offense was in reverse since he was hired, the defense improved from 45 goals given up in 2007 (tied for 9th in league) to 39 in ’08 (5th) to a consistently top four defense in the league last year right up until the 6 goal blowout in Dallas that got him fired and dropped them to 9th in the league.

Looking at his team building moves over the years gives a bit of insight too. He added some very solid players like Hartman, Heculez Gomez, and Sasha Victorine, and had the intelligence to give up on some poor or past it players like Burciaga and Nick Garcia. Then again, he did fail to notice the potential in Movsisyan, so it’s not all roses. Still, most of his moves panned out well enough.

His coaching style is beyond reproach too. While his results were so-so, his teams always looked prepared and knew their roles in the 4-4-2 he seems to prefer. He played players in their preferred roles and didn’t have any sketchy substitution patterns or mysterious benchings, which is clearly an upgrade from DC’s last coach.

So, I think it can be inferred that while he was fired from KC mainly due to his average record, there’s more to it than that. He clearly had philosophical differences in KC as evidenced by the fact that Vermes fired him and hired himself, for example. (Should be a nice moment when they meet up in March as DC and KC open the 2010 season against each other!) Anyway, looking at the big picture, he may well have done as good as anyone could have done with the team he had, but it he also certainly didn’t overachieve either which is a bit troubling.

Now extrapolating this to his likely impact in DC, it seems United will likely go to a 4-4-2, which will benefit almost everyone on the team except Gomez and Burch, so look for them to be moved on. However, KC rarely played with a “playmaker” or in a diamond midfield, so Clyde Simms might also be in trouble. Now, perhaps it’s only because his playmakers like Marinelli or Arnaud stunk or weren’t suited for the job, that he played more of a flat midfield, but I think it’s more than that as he often touted Hirsig who is that type of player. So, on DC’s roster, only Szetela truly fits into his typical central midfield roles, so I would expect another two way midfielder to be found as soon as possible with Gomez’ money.

Onalfo is also likely to go with a veteran goalkeeper as he pursued Hartman refusing to rely on backups like Oshoniyi or Hesmer (at the time, he’s done pretty well in Columbus, though). So, Wicks and Kocic are likely to have some competition soon.

I would also expect Onalfo to tighten up DC’s leaky defense and inject some speed and athleticism into the outside backs. But, I wouldn’t expect him to be able to pick any offensive talent out of the draft, so hopefully, Kasper is up to making DC’s lone good draft pick, 7th in the first round count for someone good like he did with Pontius.

Bottom line and speculation aside, I think Onalfo will do a good job at DC, he certainly doesn’t seem likely to screw anything up, but also doesn’t seem likely to set the world on fire either. Still, maybe this is the team he breaks out with, you never know. He seems to grasp the importance of this opportunity anyway with his initial quotes the most important being this one.

“I am very excited to lead D.C. United into a new era, building on its storied and successful history,” said Onalfo. “Having already played and served as an assistant coach for the most successful club in MLS history, I understand the expectations that come along with this position. It takes more to be the head coach of United and I fully intend to help bring D.C. its fifth MLS Cup.”

Of course, Onalfo is likely to get his wish for a fifth Cup if the past is any indication. Arena, Rongen, Nowak, and Soehn all collected MLS hardware in their first year. Only Hudson failed to win anything and he’s the only guy who was denied the requisite three years in charge as well. So, Onalfo better be ready to win right from the get go, or he might be the one going pretty soon. Then again most of those guys fell from the top of the mountain pretty quickly as they went along. It’s been a long time since DC was a perennial contender for the MLS Cup. Hopefully, Onalfo is shooting for that kind of success and not just the one Cup and done we’ve had from most of the coaches since the Bruce left.